Predictive Evaluation of an Externally Fixed Mass-Radius Normalization for Small Exoplanets
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Author abstract
An externally fixed normalization can be evaluated predictively without estimating its central value from the target sample. We tested a mass-radius normalization fixed upstream at 6197.936 and 6155.396 kg m-3 in 145 selected 0.50-1.80 Earth-radius planets from 121 host systems. The primary estimand was the complete held-out-host joint log score, evaluated with grouped K10R5 and exact leave-one-system-out validation. After repair of a rare mode-initialization defect and independent same-node verification, all eight primary and strict-quality lower 90% paired-host-bootstrap bounds exceeded the declared -0.05 nat-per-host non-inferiority margin. Point contrasts ranged from 0.000570 to 0.016108 nat per host, but every interval crossed zero; compatibility with the margin was therefore supported without evidence of superiority. A continuous margin profile showed that the conclusion depends on allowing losses of about 0.005-0.022 nat per host across the eight cells. A fixed-normalization grid gave compatibility widths of 0.080-0.160 log10 density units at 0.05 nat per host, while the broader 0.50-nat specificity sets remained 0.347-0.694 units wide. Multiplicity-normalized host scoring preserved the same pattern: all lower bounds exceeded -0.05 and all intervals crossed zero. The coefficient is consequently compatible with the selected sample and scoring rule, but is neither superior nor uniquely identified. Registered radius-adequacy, specificity, cross-cosmology, and historical strict-quality limitations remain unresolved or failed.
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Kent Nimmo (2026). Predictive Evaluation of an Externally Fixed Mass-Radius Normalization for Small Exoplanets. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.34906986.v1Exports preserve available metadata. Check the original record when fields are incomplete.
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